Lesson 45 · The Journal
Nine losses in a row feels like proof that something is broken. Sometimes it is. Often it’s just what a low win rate looks like over enough trades.
With a 37% win rate, long losing streaks are not rare. Over 140 trades, the math makes a streak of six or more close to certain.
A streak is normal if the trades were in-plan and losses stayed near −1R.
It’s a warning if losses grow, size creeps up, mistake tags pile up, or it’s all in one new setup.
Losing streaks are where traders make their worst decisions. After five or six losses in a row, it’s natural to change the strategy, double the size to win it back, or quit a setup that was fine. The journal is how you tell a normal streak from a real problem, without guessing in the middle of it.
What the math says
If each trade has a 37% chance to win and trades don’t affect each other, here is the chance of seeing at least one losing streak of a given length somewhere in 140 trades:
| Losing streak of at least | Chance of it happening in 140 trades |
|---|---|
| 6 in a row | About 98% |
| 7 in a row | About 89% |
| 8 in a row | About 74% |
| 9 in a row | About 56% |
| 10 in a row | About 40% |
This is probability, not trading data, and real trades aren’t perfectly independent. But the point stands: at a 37% win rate, a nine-trade losing streak over 140 trades is closer to a coin flip than a rare event. A higher win rate makes long streaks less likely; it never makes them impossible.
A normal streak looks like this
- Every trade was a defined setup, and the plan was followed.
- Losses stayed close to −1R.
- Size stayed the same.
- No cluster of mistake tags.
If that’s what your journal shows, the streak is most likely variance. The work is to keep taking the same trades at the same size.
A warning streak looks like this
- Losses getting bigger than −1R as the streak goes on.
- Size going up to “make it back”.
- More revenge, FOMO or no-setup tags.
- All the losses in one setup, one time window, or one price range you started trading recently.
That’s not variance. That’s behavior or a setup that stopped fitting, and the journal shows which.
A rule for streaks
Decide in advance what you do after a set number of losses, for example “after four losses in a row, cut size in half until the next winner” or “after three losses, stop for the day”. (Examples; pick your own in your plan.) The goal isn’t to avoid streaks. It’s to make sure a streak costs what the math expects, and no more.
Putting it together
- At low win rates, long losing streaks are expected over a large sample.
- Check whether the streak was in-plan with losses near −1R.
- Warning signs: growing losses, growing size, piling mistake tags, one new setup.
- Set a streak rule in your plan before you need it.
An honest word: the math can tell you a streak is normal. It can’t tell you your strategy has an edge. That part only shows up in expectancy over a real sample. Educational content only, not financial advice.
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